The Future of Work Post-Virus

by David Nitkin | Categories: Sector Studies Dialogue | Tags: , , ,

The Issue:

Predicting the future is not for the timid. Nonetheless, one of the more serious uncertainties we face is to attempt to understand what permanent changes might exist in the nature of work in a post-virus world. Perhaps the best way to understand what might be the changing character of work is to attempt to put a lens on what transformations have occurred to global workforces in the past four to eight weeks.

Ethical and Moral Dilemmas:

If social distancing is so critical, and work from home so pervasive, and the value of certain formerly low status jobs (like grocery clerking) is dramatically changing, why don’t we examine the new constellations within the workforce in a different way; namely, with the two major axes or variables being essential work and mobility. In doing so we might have glimpses of a new, altered workforce dynamic that shape and contribute to the future of work.

What are some of the implications of this transformation we’ve diagrammed?

  1. A New Elite: Certain kinds of jobs that are far along on the mobility and essential axes. Some are traditionally high status, such as physicians, whereas others such a grocery clerks, infrastructure workers, and cleaners are new.
  2. Retail in Freefall: The venture and sales professions have taken a huge hit in terms of jobs. Their vulnerability in terms of access to workplace and customers deeply affects the survival and recovery of many jobs.
  3. Vulnerable Professions: Groups like tellers and teachers might be more at risk post-virus in terms of employers rethinking of their wage packages and salary scales.
  4. Head Office Syndrome Erosion: Key jobs do not require head office locations, which should have impacts in terms of decentralization, investments in networking, and conferencing solutions.
  5. Volatility: Things are in flux: we are talking about values, behaviours and patterns only a few weeks in existence. For example, some of the positions in the chart are a bit ambiguous such as “cleaners”, because they could be street cleaners, house cleaners, office cleaners, etc.
  6. Uncertainty: We haven’t seen the full extent of rates of infection and death by type of work, although there are preliminary data that caregivers (health care, delivery, correctional services) may be at higher risk. Recovered survivors may well be more valued, prime candidates for rehire and new hires.

It is possible to define four apparent clusters:

  • A) NEW BARONS OR ELITES-HIGH MOBILITY, HIGH ESSENTIAL:
    These workers need to report to a work location in order to deliver services. They usually are unable to work from home. Many are higher status and higher income. Professional training is required but need not be extensive or require ongoing upgrading and retraining. Their jobs during a pandemic entail high health risk.
  • B) SERVERS AND CONTINGENT WORKERS-HIGH ESSENTIAL, LOW MOBILITY:
    These are workers who are least likely to have a guarantee of a job, a secure pay cheque, a pension, sick pay provisions, or job security. The pandemic has ravaged their incomes and challenged them to struggle to offer services remotely.
  • C) VENTURE AND SALES-LOW MOBILITY, LOW ESSENTIAL:
    These often self-employed, small and medium size business entrepreneurs are risk takers and flexible enough to provide a service away from a fixed location. They may or may not need to report to work physically in order to generate income.
  • D) MOBILE-HIGH MOBILITY, LOW ESSENTIAL:
    They are traditionally low status workers, but many are being singled out for praise for keeping the economy going while many others are working from home or not working at all. They deliver food, sanitize workplaces, and transport the rest of us. While their jobs during a pandemic entail high health risk, once they have overcome infection and built up immunity, they are prized and employable as healthy.
Nitkin: The New Geography of COVID Era Work

Legal and Values Dimensions:


The COVID-19 crisis is presenting all of us with enormous unprecedented challenges.  Our economy is being devastated by the need to ensure everyone’s health and safety.  Companies will have to assess changing values with several stakeholder groups – employees, shareholders, suppliers, rating agencies, communities and government.  This is an important moment for business leaders to navigate the crisis and bring their companies through the crisis to a recovery. They face enormous difficulties in laws that are being bent to cope with emergencies like suspended anti-competition, reporting, mortgage and loan repayment, and other regulations and rules.

Ethical business decision-making is not less important during this crisis. Future articles will discuss values and ethics decision-making in terms of worker’s rights, honouring employment contracts, and the changing character of work in the following areas:

⦁ Domestic sourcing
⦁ Home care
⦁ Minimum wages versus services economy wages higher
⦁ Use of forehead thermometers
⦁ Supply chain struggles with home delivery
⦁ Need for security in phone network, internet
⦁ Guaranteed annual income: the deserving poor
⦁ Anti-meat industry
⦁ Climate change—devaluation of oil and gas and mining economies
⦁ Guaranteed annual income

Ethics assume even more important decision making because of the difficult economic recession challenges that businesses are facing. No one knows with certainty if a deep depression will follow the recession. These challenges are compounded by two serious topics; (a) the changing mobility, status and essential nature of the workforce; and (b) an overarching concern for health and safety. 

Stakeholder interests focus on economic consequences:

  • maintaining pay for certain employees even though they cannot work;
  • facilitating work from home arrangements and continuing work to the extent possible to keep a company partially operating;
  • providing incentives for businesses to maintain some or all their workforce and supply chain so they can re-emerge post-virus pandemic; and
  • ensuring that furloughed workers still have access to health insurance, viable pensions, and career prospects
David Nitkin
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